On Monday, March 31, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to two years in prison and five years of ineligibility with immediate effect. This judgment jeopardizes her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election. A political analyst explains why this decision reshapes the political landscape.
This decision has caused a real shockwave. Marine Le Pen was sentenced to four years of imprisonment, including two years of non-custodial sentence with electronic monitoring, a fine of 100,000 euros, and five years of ineligibility with provisional execution by the Paris criminal court on Monday, March 31, in the case of parliamentary assistants of the National Front (now National Rally). Her lawyer announced her intention to appeal. This sentence applies immediately, even if there is an appeal. This judgment prevents her from running in the 2027 presidential election for now, unless a favorable decision on appeal is made before that deadline.
Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, a political analyst, lecturer-researcher at the University of Lyon II and former lecturer at the University of Clermont Auvergne, believes that Marine Le Pen’s political future is darkening: «Marine Le Pen will not be a candidate in 2027. The National Rally will have to find a new figure. There will be a whole narrative for the party to explain this decision and another narrative to create a candidacy for 2027. This judgment is a historic moment. It hasn’t happened in recent history. There will be a before and an after. This is a party with 11 million voters. Among all the political landscape that we could have expected for the 2027 election, Marine Le Pen was undoubtedly the figure we had the most certainty about. We are almost certain that she will not be a candidate. This changes everything.»
The hypothesis of a Plan B like Bardella for 2027 seems likely but not certain. Pierre-Nicolas Baudot indicates: «Everyone has in mind the Bardella plan, except that Jordan Bardella does not have unanimous support within the party. Certainly, he led the list in the European elections and was presented as a potential Prime Minister during the legislative elections. But a legislative or European campaign is not a presidential campaign. He is a very young man. He is not yet 30 and has little political experience. He has been trained in communication strategies but has no electoral experience. He may be a frontman for the National Rally, but that does not make him a presidential candidate. People within the party are well aware of this.»
According to the political analyst, sidelining Marine Le Pen could fuel the ambitions of certain political figures: «The National Rally is a party that has relied on the charismatic dominance of Marine Le Pen for years. Those close to her are loyal to her. Once it is known that she will not be a candidate in the presidential election, this dominance has no guarantees. All those who are not convinced by Jordan Bardella’s personality may want to launch themselves or their close associates. This could also initiate an open competition for the successor of Marine Le Pen in the next presidential election.»
He continues: «We can think of those who led the group in the National Assembly. Jean-Philippe Tanguy is seen a lot. Maybe he will not want to give way to Jordan Bardella, or others in the leadership of the National Rally. The party has been heavily structured around Marine Le Pen for years. There are hardly any emerging figures outside of what she decides. Now that she will be forced to step back, some things may be liberated. The only precedent dates back to 1999, also with the National Front. Jean-Marie Le Pen had been accused and it was thought he would be ineligible. This led to the split with Bruno Mégret. Jean-Marie Le Pen had said that his wife would go in his place for the election.»
According to Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, this conviction will not discredit the entire National Rally: «We will have a first element of response during the municipal elections. When we look at opinion polls, the National Rally electorate is not particularly sensitive to this type of affairs. Furthermore, there has been no personal enrichment by Marine Le Pen. It is a case of parliamentary assistants at the European Parliament, which is quite far from French politics. I don’t know if everyone will grasp the stakes. Recently, it was said that Marine Le Pen could suffer from government censorship, that she could suffer from this trial.
For now, none of these elements has harmed her in the public opinion.
One can imagine that this conviction could pave the way for the far right, which could take advantage of it in a populist manner. The teacher-researcher notes: «We can expect the RN to try to use this sequence to their advantage, in a manner reminiscent of what Trump did in the United States, by saying that it is proof that the system is against them. Marine Le Pen has for years used the term ‘coalition system’ to refer to both political parties, the press, and the judges. She said they were all against them because their party was disruptive. They will use this to reinforce that discourse, saying that it is proof that the RN is not like other parties, which the established system does not want.»
According to Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, the RN will have to rethink its strategy: «For years, the RN has presented itself as a party above the others. The others were condemned and they never were. This allowed them to say that they were doing politics differently. Now, it is clear that this is not the case. It is not a party that does politics differently. This narrative will be altered. There is no doubt that they will revert to a victimization narrative, claiming that everyone is against them. I am not sure that, in terms of electoral impact, the RN will suffer from this decision. The big unknown will be: will the political capital that Marine Le Pen had on her own name be able to be transferred, without damage, to someone else like Jordan Bardella? We will see if the voters are voting for Marine Le Pen or for the RN.»
The political scientist does not believe in the possibility of a vote of no confidence in the Bayrou government: «The RN had apparently not anticipated this possibility of judgment. I do not know what their strategy will be and I am not sure they know either. I think this judgment does not really change the national political landscape. The current government and Emmanuel Macron have found a position of stability that was not expected not so long ago. Neither the government nor the president have an interest in reintroducing instability. I do not think the RN is in a position to compel the government and allow this censure, even to shift public opinion onto something else.»
This is a turning point in Marine Le Pen’s political career.
Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, political scientist
This judgment raises many questions, according to the political scientist: «She has played a lot on the fact that she was not convicted. It was the distinctive identity of the RN. This strategy is no longer allowed, which is a first turning point for her. Furthermore, political life moves quite quickly. At best, we could see her return for 2032 but I am not sure if that is possible in case of an appeal. In that case, it postpones a possible candidacy indefinitely. There is still a lot of ambiguity and uncertainty about her own trajectory. The big question is: what will happen to the RN? In political science, we talk about the RN as a personal party, revolving around a charismatic figure. There was a question after Jean-Marie Le Pen’s departure about the sustainability of this logic. It was possible because Jean-Marie Le Pen had passed on his personal capital to his daughter. Marine Le Pen had reproduced this logic. Is the RN capable of surviving without Marine Le Pen as a presidential candidate? We have no clues about the role she will play. Perhaps she will return even more visibly to the leadership of the RN, knowing that she cannot be a candidate. She may regain a form of centrality in the party.»
Another factor to consider is the electoral successes of the RN that have propelled it into another dimension. Pierre-Nicolas Baudot emphasizes: «The RN has had increasing electoral results in recent years on both national and European levels. It is a party that has professionalized because it has had significant funding. This has allowed it to train political personnel. It has toughened up. People have been recruited, including from the upper civil service. The more the RN progresses in elections, the more it professionalizes, the more it is able to diversify its incarnations, and therefore move away from the figure of Marine Le Pen. The recent electoral results have given it a more solid foundation to potentially survive without Marine Le Pen.»
On Monday afternoon, Marine Le Pen and the RN leadership met at the party’s headquarters to prepare the response to this judicial decision.
Un politologue explique que cette décision bouleverse les règles du jeu sur le plan politique. The researcher reminds us: «We can expect the National Rally (RN) to try to use this sequence to their advantage, in a manner reminiscent of what Trump did in the United States, by saying that it is proof that the system is against them. Marine Le Pen has for years used the term ‘coalition system’ to refer to political parties, the press, and judges. She said they were all against them because their party was disruptive. They will use this to reinforce their narrative, saying that it is proof that the RN is not like other parties that the established system supports.»
According to Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, the RN will have to rethink its strategy: «For years, the RN presented itself as a party above the others. The others were condemned, but they never were. This allowed them to claim they were doing politics differently. Now, we can see that this is not the case. They are not a party that does politics differently. This narrative will be altered. It is clear that they will revert to a victimization narrative, saying that everyone is against them. I am not sure if, in electoral terms, the RN will suffer from this decision. The big question will be: will the political capital that Marine Le Pen had on her own name be able to be transferred, without damage, to someone else like Jordan Bardella? We will see if the voters vote for Marine Le Pen or for the RN.»
The political scientist is skeptical about the possibility of a vote of no confidence against the Bayrou government: «The RN had clearly not anticipated this possibility of judgment. I don’t know what their strategy will be, and I’m not sure they know either. I think this judgment does not really change the national political landscape. The current government and Emmanuel Macron have found a position of stability that was not expected not so long ago. Neither the government nor the president have an interest in reintroducing instability. I do not think the RN is in a position to force the government and allow this censure, even to shift public opinion elsewhere.»
«This is a turning point in Marine Le Pen’s political career,» says Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, the political scientist.
This judgment raises many questions, according to the political scientist: «She played a lot on the fact that she had not been convicted. It was the distinctive identity of the RN. This strategy is no longer allowed, which is a first turning point for her. Furthermore, political life moves quickly. At best, we could see her return for 2032, but I’m not sure if that is possible in case of an appeal. In that case, it would postpone a possible candidacy indefinitely. There is still a lot of uncertainty about her own trajectory. The big question is: what will happen to the RN? In political science, we talk about the RN as a personal party, revolving around a charismatic figure. There was a question after Jean-Marie Le Pen’s departure about the sustainability of this logic. It was possible because Jean-Marie Le Pen had passed on his personal capital to his daughter. Marine Le Pen had reproduced this logic. Is the RN capable of surviving without Marine Le Pen as a presidential candidate? We have no indication of the role she will play. Perhaps she will return more visibly to the leadership of the RN, knowing she cannot be a candidate. She may regain a form of centrality in the party.»
Another element to consider is the electoral successes of the RN that have propelled it into another dimension. Pierre-Nicolas Baudot emphasizes: «The RN has seen increasing electoral results in recent years on a national and European level. It is a party that has professionalized because it has had significant funding. This has allowed them to train political personnel. They have toughened up. People have been recruited, including from the upper civil service. The more the RN progresses in elections, the more it professionalizes, the more it is able to diversify its incarnations and therefore move away from the figure of Marine Le Pen. The recent electoral results have given them a stronger foundation to potentially survive without Marine Le Pen.»
On Monday afternoon, Marine Le Pen and the RN leadership met at the party’s headquarters to prepare the response to this judicial decision.
On Monday, March 31, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to two years in prison and five years of ineligibility with immediate effect. This judgment jeopardizes her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election. Un politologue explique comment cette décision modifie le paysage politique. L’enseignant-chercheur souligne que le Rassemblement National (RN) pourrait exploiter cette décision judiciaire à son avantage, en adoptant une stratégie similaire à celle de Trump aux États-Unis. Marine Le Pen a longtemps dénoncé un «système coalisé» constitué des partis politiques, de la presse et des juges, qui serait contre son parti. Le RN pourrait renforcer ce discours en se posant en victime, affirmant que le système en place est contre lui.
Selon Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, le RN devra revoir sa stratégie qui le présentait comme différent des autres partis politiques. Il est probable qu’ils se replient sur une posture de victimisation, insistant sur le fait que tout le monde est contre eux. La question clé sera de savoir si l’électorat vote pour Marine Le Pen en tant que personne ou pour le RN en tant que parti.
Le politologue ne croit pas qu’une motion de censure contre le gouvernement Bayrou soit réaliste, car le gouvernement actuel semble avoir trouvé une certaine stabilité. Il est peu probable que le RN puisse contraindre le gouvernement à une telle censure.
Le jugement rendu marque un tournant dans la carrière politique de Marine Le Pen, remettant en question son identité distinctive en tant que responsable politique non condamnée. La question de la survie du RN sans Marine Le Pen comme candidate à la présidentielle se pose également, bien que le parti ait renforcé sa professionnalisation et sa diversification.
Marine Le Pen et l’état-major du RN se sont réunis pour préparer une riposte à cette décision judiciaire.
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