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Is the hantavirus threat fading away? There have been no positive cases among the isolated French contacts. So the question arises: how can a virus extinguish itself? Is the end of the epidemic near?
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They have been hospitalized since the beginning of the week, tested every two days, and so far, all negative for hantavirus. The 26 French contacts, under surveillance for 42 days, are in good health. The virus does not seem to be spreading in our territory. Globally, only 8 confirmed cases, and a key point: these 8 individuals were all on the boat. «It means that, within a period of three to four weeks, no new cases have appeared among the contacts who were not on the boat and were contaminated later,» explains Philippe Amouyel, professor of public health at the CHU de Lille, «If, by the end of June, no other cases appear in any country in the world, we can estimate that the epidemic will have extinguished itself.»
According to the latest sequencing, carried out notably in Dakar (Senegal), the virus has not mutated. There is therefore little risk that it has become highly contagious and that cases will appear outside the already identified chains of contamination. Could the virus reappear later, in several months, in a different form? According to Professor Pascal Crepey, an epidemiologist: «There is no circulation in Europe of this strain in rodent populations. So there is no risk of emergence or re-emergence of the strain.»
However, health authorities remain vigilant and monitor certain countries closely, such as the United States, where isolation rules are less strict than in other countries.
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